2024: The Year “Unretirement” Goes Mainstream
Longer lifespans, healthy aging, and the end of retirement as we know it top the trends as we head into a new year.
Hello to you and 2024!
We saw important developments in the longevity economy last year, most notably the launch of Longevity Gains. 😉
But even I was surprised by the acceleration in mainstream coverage about issues related to older people, our aging population, and the power of 50+ consumers. This year looks to raise awareness up another significant notch, if early indications hold.
This may be the year everything breaks wide open. That means everyone starts chasing “the next big thing,” which in this case will continue for decades if not become a permanent reordering of the world economy.
That means your primary new year’s resolution should be to start a business focusing on older consumers, or pivot some (or all) of your marketing strategy toward the 50+ market. We’re clearly past the “it’s too early” phase and are now on the cusp of the longevity economy going mainstream.
To that point, the top predicted trends for 2024 were assembled and published by LinkedIn. The top two prognostications are aimed squarely at our subject matter here at Longevity Gains, and that alone will help change perceptions. Plus, the unretirement trend that’s been on slow boil for a decade is becoming mainstream.
Let's look at three of the 34 entries:
1. Living to age 100 will become a lot less rare
The number one trend is longevity itself. Expect this to be a leading trend and topic on every new year’s list from this point forward.
By the United Nations’ estimate, the entire world had just 27,000 true centenarians in 1970.
Now, the global centenarian count tops 500,000 and could be headed as high as 3.5 million in 2050, the UN calculates. The most recent U.S. tally sits at 96,000 for 2022, but get ready for a six-figure total (perhaps 104,000) when 2023 data is released next June, says Nadine Oullette, a longevity expert at the University of Montreal.
The extension in lifespan in the last 50 years alone is remarkable. And we’ve yet to account for possible new developments in efforts to slow or reverse aging by medical means that were once the realm of science fiction.
Of course, we know that the longevity economy is not evenly distributed, especially in the United States. As marketers and entrepreneurs, we’re generally in the position of preferring customers that already take care of themselves instead of changing minds.
But we may be at the beginning of a shift, much like when people started giving up cigarettes in the 1970s, where alternative marketing education opens up new market opportunities that enhance the lives of older consumers. Maybe you’ll lead the way?
2. ...but we'll take the focus off living long and shift to living well
This second-place trend is something you’re already familiar with. The life expectancy divide is really one of healthspan, and it’s most highly correlated with education, not income. The question becomes one of business models that rely on messaging that educates consumers about healthy aging and, more importantly, a positive attitude about aging.
To counter this trend, physicians like Mark Hyman emphasize that people would do well to focus on the things that can improve their lives without significant financial cost: better nutrition, exercise, stress management, and sleep. This investment can extend to overall well-being by prioritizing strong social ties and cultivating a sense of purpose.
As I mentioned above, many marketers will simply ignore unhealthy older people and those who think aging is the end of the road instead of a new beginning. I’m hoping we see breakthroughs to the contrary, but as we know, changing minds is tough, and often impossible.
20. Expect an "unretirement" wave in 2024
This one is further down the LinkedIn list, but its impact will be immediate in the here and now. And it’s one of the most important trends to understand, because changing expectations about retirement open up a multitude of opportunities.
It’s been a decade since Chris Farrell’s book Unretirement coined the trend, and it was clearly a very early observation of an impending change in attitudes toward retirement. Now in 2024, though, it’s time to get to work on what unretirement (and a shift to a permanent pushing back of retirement age) means.
The workforce is likely to stay pretty crowded this coming year.
Inflation is still high, interest rates are unlikely to fall by much and most people haven’t been saving enough for their golden years. This means many of the oldest members of the workforce are feeling strapped for cash and are pushing off retirement, or reneging on it altogether.
Plus, it’s ultimately longer healthier lives that are ultimately changing the face of retirement. Not many people can live 30 or 40 years without working, and lots of people are realizing they don’t want to stop working regardless.
This is a trend driven by older people, but its effects are much broader than that. We’re seeing a reordering of the workforce itself; a disruptive shift that presents more opportunities than even initially meets the eye. And it appears to be a positive disruption that nonetheless fuels a ton of profit for savvy marketers and entrepreneurs.
The trend could have positive impacts on the workforce. Research featured in Harvard Business Review finds that teams that span generations have differing but complementary abilities and skills that can lead to more productive collaboration and stronger overall performance.
Unretirement opens the door to an array of entrepreneurial and career training and retraining opportunities alone. We’ll explore that topic in depth soon in Longevity Gains Premium.
Check out the entire list of 34 trends for additional context relevant to the longevity economy, including the ramifications of low birthrates and the power of Gen Z workers in a tight labor market that will likely lead to benefits for older generations.
34 Big Ideas That Will Change Our World in 2024 (LinkedIn)
Unretirement Planning
For the remainder of this issue, let’s dive a little deeper into the issues raised by the trends. The first, of course, is “unretirement,” which is simply the beginning of the end of retirement as we know it.
The number of people of working age (15-64) is plateauing across the globe and contributing to a persistent staff shortage.
But 80 percent of over-65s like the idea of working through retirement. Companies looking for experience and proven track records in relevant roles can rely on retired talent to plug those skills shortages, but must be willing to demonstrate flexibility to accommodate their individual needs. Here’s how the rise of unretirement can help businesses, employees and even governments with today’s working-age population problem.
It’s a financial issue for sure. But it’s also more than that.
70 percent of those surveyed in our latest Workmonitor report said their financial position prevents them from retiring as early as they would like. But employment is more than just a paycheck. Nearly a third of survey respondents in the Workmonitor report said they need work in their lives, be that for the social aspect, to achieve unmet goals, or just to keep busy.
The longevity economy is not just about wealthy Baby Boomers. In fact, that’s the smallest part of it in the long run. But that doesn’t mean you should necessarily ignore that opportunity (see below).
The Rise of Unretirement: How We Can all Benefit from an Age-Diverse Workforce (Randstad)
Elder Boomer Bucks
New Federal Reserve data shows that Elder Boomers (those over the age of 70) have become $14 trillion richer post-pandemic. With the oldest members of the generation turning 80 next year, you may not be thinking about this cohort, but clearly you should be.
The news is not as good for Generation X and younger Boomers, though. But that brings us right back to the longevity economy flywheel – older people working longer, spending longer, and continuing to be thriving, active citizens for longer.
As the share of the country’s household wealth for the 70-plus age group rose during the pandemic, it declined for those ages 40 to 59 (mainly Gen Xers and younger boomers)—it’s now smaller than it was in 2019.
The vast majority of this wealth is in real estate and stocks, both due to a longer investment time frame, but also advantageous circumstances that the rest of us didn’t necessarily have access to. Older Boomers take a lot of flak for that, so marketing messages need to have an appropriate tone.
Of course, not all boomers are faring well. As with any generation, there’s an intergenerational wealth gap … That’s prompting some to unretire or delay retirement. The share of Americans 65 and older who are still employed has almost doubled since 35 years ago, reaching almost 20% of the cohort, per new Pew Research Center data.
The group of 50+ people who work longer and spend longer is the real trend here. We likely won’t see another group with the accumulated wealth of the elder Boomers again. There’s certainly money in the Elder Boomer realm, but the long term play involves longer working lives.
Blue Zone America
There’s a good chance you’ve heard of “blue zones” – areas of the world (locations in Italy, Greece, Japan, Costa Rica, and Loma Linda, California) where people live historically much longer and healthier lives.
Author Dan Buettner came up with the concept of Blue Zones as he traveled globally conducting research to figure out the secrets to living longer. His work is now featured in a popular 2023 Netflix documentary series called "Live to 100: Secrets of the Blue Zones."
There’s now an attempt to grade U.S. states on the health and longevity of their residents, and their potential to be a new Blue Zone. In addition to givens like sleep, physical activity, and anxiety/depression, the index also factors in higher levels of religious activity, which is a feature of most existing Blue Zones.
The one problem with Buettner’s methodology is unreliable birth records for many of the areas that seem to feature statistically significant longer lives. But the two states that bookend the top ten of this new index – California and Colorado – certainly offer ample evidence of healthier lifestyles.
Of course, we already have a life expectancy map of the United States, and it’s based on current hard data, not speculative criteria. That said, the top projected “blue zone” states match up pretty well with existing life expectancy numbers.
The bottom line is that healthy aging, advanced healthspans, and the resulting longer lives are the product of education-based cultures that value health and wellness. The opposite end of the spectrum involves obesity, diabetes, and heart disease, not to mention drug overdoses, gun violence, and suicide.
Which again raises an issue of strategy and ideal customer profiles. The older people who embrace healthy lifestyles are dream customers, while others may be effectively unreachable.
10 States Most Likely to Become 'Blue Zones,' With Healthy Lifestyles and Long Lifespans
That’s it for this issue. Remember … it’s up to you to shape what the longevity economy looks like!
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